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How to Find Cryptocurrency Predictions? – Page 3 – If you have been investing in cryptocurrency, you know that considering the market conditions is of paramount importance

The oldest trading strategy is the best trading strategy

Price action is the oldest strategy in the world of forex trading. It is a trading method of the technical analysis type. It seems ridiculous that so many old strategies that have been set in motion are unknown. Ask some of today’s new retailers what the price is and they will look at you hopelessly. A few may have heard of it, but you can practically guarantee that no one will know how it works.

Today’s modern forex market is basically run by robots. Indicators are used that show you astonishing unreliability when you need to buy and sell. The trading community has definitely become lazy.

The principle of this method is very simple. It tells you about current trends and predicts price movements in the near future. When the stock market first opened its doors, all traders used this method to buy and sell. Jesse Livermore was a legendary merchant in the early twentieth century, and the only system he ever used was price action.

Why have things changed so drastically? By introducing indicators into common trading, the whole thing has become more complicated than it should be. Traders seem to have actually forgotten how to analyze markets.

New marketers entering the market are brainwashed by these wonderful inventions that make your money for you. They will never hear of it, but when their bank accounts are empty thanks to their mechanical friends, they will wish they were.

So throw out the indicators, learn the effects of prices and become a real trader.

5 Technical indicators used by experts

If you have just learned technical analysis, you may be overwhelmed by all the indicators on which you need to base your predictions. You may not be able to use all the indicators and you will be able to make a decision in time, so here are the top 5 technical indicators used by forex trading experts.

Moving averages

If you are a beginner, you may want to start with the simplest indicator. Moving average, although simple, is one of the preferred technical indicators of experts. Using moving averages, you compare the averages of charts that span two different ranges. For example, you can compare a 7-day average with a 30-day average. Look at the way the two averages cross. You can predict a bear market if the crossover comes from the top down, and you can predict a bull market if the crossover comes from the bottom up.

Bollinger bands

This technical indicator works on the belief that the market value can increase or decrease depending on two standard deviations. Each of the standard deviations is plotted on both sides of the moving price chart. So basically, Bollinger bands are used to determine whether a price is considered high or low based on price history.

Relative strength index (RSI)

The relative strength index, or RSI, is the relative strength of the price of a security relative to past prices of the same security. RSI is used to determine whether a security is overbought or resold. Over a period of usually 14 days, you will observe bears and bulls price changes. You need to divide the sum of the bull shops by the sum of the bear shops. The answer is an index from 0 to 100. If the number is greater than 70, then the security is overbought (bearish). Similarly, if the number is below 30, then the security is oversold (bullish).

Stochastic

The stochastic indicator is a good tool for determining whether a market is strong or weak. This technical indicator shows that if the price rises during a trading day, it is more likely to end up close to the maximum price for that day. Accordingly, if the price falls during a trading day, it is more likely to end up close to the minimum price for that day. This indicator is best used as a time tool and can show trend changes on which you can base your investment. The stochastic indicator is best used in conjunction with RSI.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is a pulse meter that can be calculated by finding the difference between two exponential moving averages. MACD closely follows trends. The MACD differs from moving averages in that exponential moving averages (EMAs) give much more weight to newer prices than the rest of the prices plotted on the chart.

If you look further, you will find many other useful indicators. However, the ones we have listed here, the experts have tried and tested the most. By using or combining any of these technical indicators, you can get into the best trading move.

The key forex technical indicators used by experienced traders can be discovered by visiting the Technical Analysis Tips website.

Why do we pay more for petrol in the summer?

The barrel contains 159 liters (42 gallons) of oil, and the refinery can produce about 1.78-2.54 liters of gasoline from 3.8 liters of crude oil. One barrel of oil will also produce approximately 64 liters of other useful petroleum by-products such as plastic, propane and ammonia.

Currently, 62% of readily available crude oil is located in the Middle East, and the main players are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. There are four main factors that regulate the price of this valuable oil.

a) Availability or supply of crude oil

b) Oil consumption rate

c) Financial markets

d) Government policies and regulations

The fundamental economy dictates that a large supply of oil will turn into lower demand, which in turn will cause low prices, and conversely, if we have a small supply of oil, it will cause high demand and in turn higher prices. With this basic concept, oil is traded on the financial market. An oil speculator invests in oil futures benefits – basically betting on how much oil will cost in the future. Government policies and regulations also have a major impact on oil prices, for example, laws designed to prevent climate change are enforced through taxation, and this increases gasoline costs for consumers.

An important factor that also regulates the price of crude oil is that the price has been expressed in US dollars over the last 50 years, so fluctuations in that currency can cause the cost of buying a barrel of oil to fluctuate. Recently, there has been talk of switching from a transaction denominated in US dollars to the euro or to a basket of currencies. It remains to be seen whether this will turn out.

Finally, we would like to end the discussion of prices by mentioning that in 1956, the geophysicist Hubbert theorized that the world would eventually reach a top level of oil production, and he coined the term “peak oil”. Once this level is reached, the world would slowly begin to deplete its oil reserves, causing a dramatic and fatal rise in prices.

So why does gasoline cost more in summer? Well, there are a multitude of factors why gasoline usually goes up in price during the summer months, and one of the reasons is increased demand and better weather, resulting in more motorists on the roads. Another key reason is that, when the weather starts to heat up, utility companies are temporarily closing some of their refineries to be able to perform the necessary regular maintenance, and this could lead to disruptions in the supply chain for gasoline distribution. It should be noted that there are actually two fuel blends: winter and summer gasoline. In summer, gas stations have a seasonal transition, as the summer mix helps reduce smog during the summer ozone season, which runs from June 1 to September 15 each year. This initiative was launched in the United States in 1995 as part of the Reformed Gasoline Program (RFG). So how exactly does a summer blend help reduce pollution? Summer gasoline contains fuel additives known as “oxygenates” that clean combustion, and this is useful in reducing pollution during the summer season. To learn more about crude oil, read this book.

Great oil return

Every week brings another series of headlines about heavy blows that will soon fall in the energy sector …

“The Oil Collapse ‘Spiral Death” is coming soon …

And … “Oil prices will never recover.”

Obviously, we will all leave gas cars and trucks very soon because of Tesla’s cooks. A slow-growing America and an increasing number of wind and solar installations around the world are reportedly going to get the job done.

Boom! Oil is “new coal”.

Don’t believe it. In fact, we may be entering a new golden era for oil investment – all because of a certain five-letter country in Asia …

If you want to know which economy will have the biggest impact on the global price of oil – and why we will continue to view the oil sector as an important part of any investment strategy – all you need to do is look at what is happening in India.

India – with a population of 1.3 billion and a growing trend in gross domestic product (GDP) that is now growing faster than China (7.5% vs. 6.9% in 2015) – is still in the early stages of a mass love affair with raw raw material. And since about 80% of what you spend needs to be introduced, it’s a love affair that grows literally from month to month.

In September, oil imports rose by almost 12% compared to a year ago. The same was true in August (9% growth) when the country imported a record nearly 19 million metric tons of crude oil – the equivalent of almost 4.5 million barrels per day. By comparison, China, with a more developed economy and nearly 1.4 billion people, imports about 6 million barrels a day.

As the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently noted, “India is taking over China as a major market for oil growth.”

At the current pace, the country is on track to increase annual imports by 7% for the second time in a row, doubling crude oil imports in ten years.

What drives all the demand?

The story is well known – a small but growing middle class (which now makes up about a fifth of India’s population, demographers say, but is expected to grow to more than 40% by 2030).

And new cars. Lots of new cars.

In 2015, passenger car sales grew by almost 10% to more than 2 million units, the fastest pace in five years. One of India’s largest carmakers, Maruti Suzuki, recently predicted annual sales would reach 5 million a year by the end of this decade.

Keep in mind, all of this is happening in the background in which the IEA, in its World Energy Investment 2016 report, said that current oil wells around the world are consumed by an average of about 9% per year. Discoveries of new oil reserves are “falling to a level not seen in the last 60 years”.

Of course, it is important to ask whether the sale of electric vehicles can become a major factor and perhaps drive away the growing demand for oil in India.

I’m sure the answer is yes. But when anyone guesses. As in India Economic Times it is noted that the country has 400 million people who do not have access to reliable electricity. And even in larger cities, outages have been frequent due to a lack of investment in India’s electricity grid in previous decades. Without reliable power, even the fastest-charged electric car or long-range motorcycle is useless.

The situation is starting to change in India, but it will take decades. Meanwhile, oil remains the only practical game in the city for investors and as the foundation of the rapidly developing Indian economy.

Lessons from long-term capital management

Background

Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) was a hedge fund founded in 1994 by John Meriwether, a very successful bond trader at Salomon Brothers. In Salomon, Meriwether was one of the first on Wall Street to employ top academics and professors. Meriwether founded a team of academics who applied models based on financial theories in trading. In Solomon, Meriwether’s group of geniuses achieved an incredible return and demonstrated an incomparable ability to accurately calculate risk and other market factors.

In 1994, Meriwether left Salomon and founded LTCM. Among the partners were two Nobel Prize-winning economists, a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a professor at Harvard University and other successful bond traders. This elite group of traders and academics has attracted initial investments of about $ 1.3 billion from many large institutional clients.

Strategy

The LTCM strategy was simple in concept but difficult to implement. LTCM used computer models to find opportunities for arbitrage between markets. The central strategy of LTCM was convergent trading where the securities had wrong prices relative to each other. LTCM would occupy long positions on undervalued securities and short positions on overpriced securities.

LTCM has addressed this strategy in international bond markets, emerging markets, U.S. government bonds, and other markets. LTCM would make money if these ranges were reduced and returned to fair value. Later, when the capital base of LTCM increased a fund that dealt with strategies beyond their expertise, such as merger arbitrage and S&P 500 volatility.

These strategies, however, focused on small price differences. Myron Scholes, one of the partners, said “LTCM will function like a giant vacuum cleaner that sucks nickel that everyone else overlooked.” To make a significant profit on small value differences, the hedge fund took positions with high leverage. In early 1998, the fund had assets of about $ 5 billion and borrowed about $ 125 billion.

Results

LTCM initially achieved outstanding returns. Prior to benefits, the fund earned 28% in 1994, 59% in 1995, 57% in 1996, and 27% in 1997. LTCM earned these yields with surprisingly little instability. By April 1998, the value of one dollar invested had risen to $ 4.11.

However, in mid-1998, the fund began to suffer losses. Those losses were further exacerbated when the Salomon Brothers withdrew from the arbitration deal. Later in the year, Russia failed to hold government bonds, holding LTCM. Investors panicked to sell Japanese and European bonds and buy U.S. government bonds. Thus, the gaps between the LTCM holdings increased, due to which the arbitrage trades lost huge amounts. LTCM lost $ 1.85 billion in capital by the end of August 1998.

The range between LTCM’s arbitration business continued to expand and the fund experienced a flight to liquidity, which is why the assets decreased in the first 3 weeks of September from 2.3 billion to 600 million dollars. Although assets decreased, the value of the portfolio did not decrease due to the use of leverage. However, the reduction in assets increased the leverage of the fund. Finally, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York catalyzed $ 3.625 billion in aid from major institutional lenders to avoid a wider collapse in financial markets that caused LTCM’s dramatic leverage and huge derivative positions. In late September 1998, the value of one dollar invested initially decreased to $ 0.33 before fees.

Lessons from LTCM failure

1. Limit excessive lever use

When engaging in securities-based investment strategies that converge from market to estimated fair value, managers must have a long-term time frame and be able to withstand adverse price changes. When dramatic leverage is used, the ability of capital to invest in the long run during adverse price changes is limited by the patience of creditors. Lenders usually lose patience during a market crisis when borrowers need capital. If forced into securities during an illiquid market crisis, the fund will fail.

LTCM’s use of leverage has also highlighted the lack of regulation in the OTC derivatives market. Many lending and reporting requirements established in other markets, such as futures, were not present in the OTC derivatives market. This lack of transparency has caused the risks of the dramatic impact of LTCM not to be fully recognized.

The failure of the LTCM does not mean that any use of leverage is bad, but rather highlights the potential negative consequences of using excessive leverage.

2. The importance of risk management

LTCM has failed to manage multiple aspects of risk internally. Managers focused mainly on theoretical models, and insufficiently on liquidity risk, gap risk and stress testing.

With such large positions, LTCM should focus more on liquidity risk. The LTCM model underestimated the likelihood of a market crisis and the potential to escape liquidity.

LTCM models also assumed that long and short positions were highly correlated. This assumption was historically based. Previous results do not guarantee future results. By testing stress on a model for the potential for lower correlations, risk could be better managed.

In addition to LTCM, large institutional hedge fund lenders have failed to properly manage risk. Impressed by all of the fund’s major traders and the large amount of assets, many lenders provided very generous credit terms, even though the lenders were exposed to significant risk. Also, many lenders did not understand their overall exposure to certain markets. During a crisis, exposure to certain risks in multiple areas of business can cause dramatic damage.

3. Supervision

LTCM failed to conduct a truly independent vendor check. Without this oversight, traders could have created too many risky positions.

LTCM shows an interesting case of predictive constraints based on historical information and the importance of recognizing potential model failures. In addition, the LTCM story illustrates the risk of limited transparency in the OTC derivatives market.

To learn more about finance and investing, visit the Sharpe Investing blog.

Inside Scoop on Forex

Forex, also known as the foreign exchange market, is a source of income for many people. But many people often wonder what Forex really is. Forex is a market for currency exchange, in other words, you can exchange US dollars for euros. It basically works the same as on the stock market and also comes with many risks and drawbacks.

Quite a number of people actually make a living from Forex trading. They basically do the same thing as a day trader, but internationally. You can become very risky with Forex, and even the safest trades are incredibly risky. Currency can go up or down very quickly, and if you trade wrong, you can lose a lot of money. It’s pretty much like gambling, but if you know what you’re doing, you can make some big investments.

The whole idea behind Forex is that the currencies of different countries can vary depending on the financial situation of that country. It can depend on any number of things, including crops, production, and even how individual companies of that country are doing at the time. Looking ahead and accurately predicting the financial situation of a country in the future can lead to large investments, but as I said earlier, it is still a gamble.

The currency can lose value very quickly. Forex is undoubtedly more volatile than the New York Stock Exchange or other similar stock exchanges, simply based on the fact that many countries do not have a stable financial status. Wars often break out in smaller countries and this can completely devalue their currency. Trade Forex at your own risk.

The idea behind Forex is not hard to grasp at all, but learning to invest wisely in it can be a daunting task. It’s a big gamble, especially when you’re using large sums of money, and I recommend you know what you’re doing before you even invest.

About commodity investment

Among the various types of investment, it is more lucrative for many traders and it is easier to invest money in commodities. If you want to invest your money in goods, the first thing to do is decide which goods to choose for investing money.

The goods themselves are a broad term. It includes everything from raw materials to finished products. They include metals, silver, gold, copper, cereals, soy and more. Instead of buying materials, investors are attracted to participating in commodity markets to buy stocks and invest money in exchange-traded funds.

Smart traders always strive to make their portfolio diverse. This means that if one part of the portfolio falls, the other part will compensate for the loss from the profit earned by the investor. Therefore, many traders do not hesitate to invest their money in goods.

One way to invest in goods is spot trading. This is a type of commodity trade that you can trade within a few business days. Goods are purchased in large quantities where customers are willing to pay the spot price, and then the goods are sold immediately on the spot.

There are two types of goods, ie. The future and the option. In a future contract for goods, you enter into a contract for the purchase of goods at a certain price, and the date of purchase is also determined. On the other hand, for options, the trader buys and sells the goods himself. There is no lock date for buying and selling goods.

Future goods

For future goods, the trader must make a minimum deposit with his broker. Even with a small amount of money, you can take control of a large amount of goods you want to trade. If the value of the future contract falls, you have to cover the loss yourself, otherwise you may lose the position. The value of goods can change over time.

Commodity options

Investing in options can allow you to buy a mini option contract, which is part of the actual contract. When you invest money in options, it allows you to recoup your investment costs by allowing you to sell options to another investor while buying options for a future date.

When you invest in commodities, it means you are investing in either futures or options. Many professional traders in the financial industry say that investing money in commodities can be a great diversification technique to preserve your portfolio and make it profitable.

Other types of commodities you can invest in include index funds, fund units and commodity inventories. Index funds can allow you to invest directly in futures contracts. They are less risky. There are many investors who like to invest money in mutual funds. They can allow you to invest in a wide range of categories such as gold, silver, agriculture and metals. Commodity stocks can also be a good investment. You can buy stocks of crude oil, copper, energy, etc. And make your portfolio diverse.

5 Frequent abuse of P / E relationships

The price-to-earnings ratio (P / E) is the ratio most commonly used in an investment. A search for ‘P / E ratio’ on Google will return 2.3 million results. Simply put, the P / E ratio is the ratio of the share price divided by its earnings per share (EPS). If Company A trades at $ 10 per share and earns $ 2.00 per share, then A has a P / E ratio of 5. This means that it takes five years for company earnings to pay off for your initial investment. If you reverse the P / E ratio, we get the E / P ratio, which represents the return on our investment. In this case, a P / E of 5 equals a yield of 20%.

The P / E ratio is convenient and very easy to use. But that’s why so many investors are abusing it. Here are some common abuses of the P / E relationship:

Use of accompanying P / E. The final P / E is the ratio of the company’s price earnings in the last 12 months. For cyclical companies that reach peak earnings, the P / E ratio is deceptive. The final P / E ratio may seem low, but its front P / E may not. The forward P / E is calculated using the projected earnings per company share. Forward P / E is more important than P / E at the threshold. Finally, the future counts.

Neglecting earnings growth. A low P / E ratio does not necessarily mean that the stock is undervalued. Investors must take into account the growth rate of the company. Company A with a P / E ratio of 15 and 0% earnings growth may not look as appealing as Company B with a P / E ratio of 20 and 25% earnings growth. The reason is if both stock prices remain the same, after 3 years, the P / E ratio of company B will decrease to 10.3, while A will still have a P / E ratio of 15. The moral of the story is not to use P Only ratio E to assess the value of the property.

Ignoring a one-time event. The P / E ratio always includes one-off events such as restructuring or downward adjustment costs in goodwill. When this happens, the ‘E’ in the P / E ratio will appear low. As a result, this event inflates the P / E ratio. Investors will well ignore this one-off event and look beyond the high P / E ratio.

Ignoring the balance sheet. It’s true. Investors often neglect cash and long-term debt embedded in the balance sheet when calculating the P / E ratio. It is true that companies with higher net cash in the balance sheet usually get a higher P / E estimate.

Neglect of interest rate. Using only the P / E ratio for our investment decision will yield disastrous results. As explained earlier, when we reverse the P / E ratio, we get the E / P ratio. The E / P ratio is basically the return on our investment. Shares with a P / E of 10 yield 10%. Stocks with a P / E of 20 give 5% and so on. If the interest rate rises to 6%, then shares traded at a P / E of 20 will become overvalued and everything else remains the same.

As with other financial indicators, the P / E ratio cannot be used only to value a company. Interest rates vary, earnings per share rise and fall, and so does the stock price. All this should be taken into account when choosing your potential investment.

What is Forex Technical Analysis?

In the Forex trading world, it is important to use a specific analysis system. Forex technical analysis is a system used to predict price movements for a given stock option. Most traders use it for a clearer understanding of investing based on its price history. Forex traders can therefore try to determine if they are doing their job the right way or not.

With this method of analysis, all market data are contained in price data. Because history repeats itself on fairly predictable patterns, a technical analyst can expose future patterns by examining the past. Another key principle of Forex technical analysis is that price fluctuations never occur by chance, so they can be predictable.

Ordinary retailers constantly use price charts to find ideal entry and exit points. They can be used to identify a trend or to determine its strength and sustainability in the long run. While it’s hard to stick to a particular trading plan, adding technical analysis to this makes it a little easier to maintain discipline and downplay the emotions in your trading plan.

Technical analysis uses three types of price charts, namely; bar charts, candlesticks, score and number charts and trend indicators. The bar chart shows different price patterns over time. However, in candlestick charts, they provide the trader with greater visual details as he develops. Other tables are also useful in completing the analysis process.

There are two types of forex technical analysis. They are objective and subjective. Forex technical analysis is very useful if used objectively rather than subjectively. It provides precise and clear signals, as well as help in making decisions for the future. Objective results can be recorded so that the trader knows exactly what to expect. This allows for throwing when the conditions are best.

How to use the foundation in protection

Cash price – forward price = basis (at a certain moment)

A producer’s decision about when and how to market their crops or livestock can have as much of an impact on their net lower profits as any production decision they can make throughout the year. Farmers today have more marketing alternatives than they used to and face a complex and fast marketing system. They must compare traditional marketing methods of selling cash during the harvest (or pre-harvest, on guaranteed secured thunderstorms) or when the stock is ready for the market, in order to pass on contracting or protection with futures or options. To do this, they must thoroughly understand the relationship between different prices in prices, so that they can compare them equally in terms of time, place and quality.

As stated above, the relationship between cash and forward price is known as the “basis”. In marketing, the basis mainly refers to the difference between the price in a certain cash market and a certain price of futures contracts. Basis “localizes” the forward price in terms of location, time, and quality. Understanding the basics makes it possible to compare “quotes with futures price markets” with cash prices and “futures contracts”.

Calculation basis

The formula for calculating the base is: Cash price – forward price = base at a given time. A negative basis implies that the price of the futures is higher than the price of cash, and a positive basis implies that the price of the futures is lower than the price of cash.

In this formula, “cash price” refers to a specific location, time, and product quality. The location can be a specific elevator, ethanol factory, packer, etc. Or it can represent the average price for a general area. The weather can represent a specific day or perhaps a weekly average. Quality can be what variety or corn you have or the weight of your livestock. “Futures price” in the formula refers to a contract for the same time that represents the cash price. Product quality at the futures contract price is standardized.

The basis is most often calculated as the difference between the cash price and the near-term futures contract (nearby). For example, in June, the corn base would be calculated using the current cash price minus the July futures contract price. The grain base can also be calculated using a cash price and a more distant futures contract to see if the market is offering a return to storage (“Carry”).

Livestock differs in that you would only consider a nearby basis (not delayed), for hedges and cash sales, because, unlike cereals, livestock is perishable and cannot be stored for long periods of time, as grains can.

In the next section, we’ll discuss ways to “predict the baseline” and ways you can begin to properly track and record baseline data in your area.